Could Russia’s disarray mean gain for Ukraine? Although its counteroffensive has made slow progress, morale rose following the failed march on Moscow by the Wagner group, whose brutal tactics have spilled much Ukrainian blood. The longer-term fate of Wagner’s mercenaries could well be decided in neighboring Belarus, where the Group’s leader and thousands of its forces appear to have set up camp. That’s not the only threat Belarus is housing: to the consternation of eastern European NATO Members, Russia is also deploying tactical nuclear weapons there – with explicit approval from Belarus’ autocratic leader Alexander Lukaschenko. So we’re asking: Nuclear Weapons and Wagner in Belarus: A threat to Ukraine and NATO?
Our guests:
Carlo Masala, Military expert and Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich and Member of the NATO Defence College
Maryna Rakhlei, German Marshall Fund
Maxim Samorukov, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Chapters
00:00 Ukraine is only at the beginning of its counter-offensive
03:20 It is too early to say the counter-offensive has failed
05:40 Lukashenko is back on the international stage
06:30 The role of Yevgeny Prigozhin
09:00 Is Wagner preparing to open a second front in Ukraine?
10:00 Wagner lost access to money and weapons
10:35 Prigozhin’s approval rates in Russia
11:40 Militias in Russia are financed by the state
12:20 Will Wagner be renamed?
14:30 Is Belarus a vassal state of Russia?
17:00 Nuclear weapons in Belarus
19:50 A NATO membership for Ukraine is not on the table
22:10 Lukashenko’s claim – a stronger NATO eastern front threatens global security?
24:59 The biggest danger Lukashenko poses is to his own people
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