Groceries could get more expensive because of the US-Israel war with Iran. That’s because natural gas and fertilizers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked due to the war.
The countries in the Gulf region are major contributors to the global fertilizer trade: 34% of urea and 49% of sulfur come from the Middle East. But that’s not the whole story. Natural gas exports are also stuck .
Countries like India, Bangladesh and Pakistan depend on natural gas from the region for their own production of nitrogen-based fertilizers.
If ready-made fertilizers and gas for their production become more expensive, farmers will buy less, have smaller harvests, and therefore food prices will go up.
But for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa like Sudan, Tanzania and Somalia, even small changes in price can significantly threaten basic food supply.
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