What if you could bet yes or no on almost anything? Will the U.S. invade Greenland for example, or how much snow will fall in New York?
Elections, court cases, scandals; the real world suddenly turns into a betting slip. The growing popularity of prediction markets has turned day-to-day events into tradable probabilities, blurring the line between finance and gambling.
These markets already exist in the US, where people wager on outcomes to predict the future.
Supporters say they’re powerful tools to judge the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, but sceptics argue they’re open to manipulation.
It’s a market that is already raising ethical and regulatory questions – like should you be able to bet on disaster or even war – though predictions market Kalshi says it does not list on war, terrorism, death, violence, and criminal activity.
But this new trend may be heading to the UK; this time they’re playing by a different set of rules. So how do they work, why are they controversial, and what does this mean for the future of gambling and trading in the UK?
00:00 Intro
01:05 What are they?
02:15 Why are they controversial?
05:33 Gambling v Trading
06:32 The risk to young people
07:15 What does this mean for the UK?
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