There’s a scene from The Sopranos that has become a meme whereby the show’s protagonist is asked by his therapist: “Last week you said it was over; this week you say you’re back: what’s changed?”
It is meant to be a light-hearted jibe at Tony Soprano lurching from one extreme to the other in his outlook in life, but it could also apply to the fickle nature of Scottish politics over the last 18 months.
Last year the commentators were saying it was over for the SNP. This year, the polls say they’re back.
What’s changed? In part, John Swinney has steadied the ship.
He inherited a party under the shadow of an ongoing police investigation and seemingly in turmoil, after the early departure of Nicola Sturgeon’s successor Humza Yousaf – whose ill-fated tenure lasted just one year, one month, and eight days.
John Swinney came in promising that he would refocus on getting the basics right for the Scottish people, with less drama and more stability.
Despite the early setback of losing 38 MPs just two months into his reign, and losing a by-election to Labour earlier this year his party is on course for a big win in next year’s Scottish election.
“I’ve focused the government on addressing the public’s concerns and priorities,” he told me on Friday, in an interview on the eve of the SNP conference.
He continued: “The real issues that matter in people’s lives, whether that’s about improving the state of the economy, about improving our public services, making sure that we succeed in our efforts to deliver the transition to next zero or about eradicating child poverty.
“So I’ve led a government that’s focused on the public’s priorities and I think we’re making some progress on that.
His success is also, in no small part, due to the unpopularity of Sir Keir Starmer and the perception of his government’s performance in its first year in office.
Just as SNP voters in Scotland were willing to vote Labour last year to send a message to Swinney and co about their dissatisfaction, the polls indicate those voters are going back to the SNP en masse to give Labour a bloody nose.
And the Scottish first minister told ITV News he does not believe Sir Keir will survive as Labour leader long enough to take them into the next UK election.
He said: “I don’t think so [that Keir Starmer will still be Labour leader] no, because I think the last 12 months, it’s almost scarcely believable, the sense of disappointment that has taken place, because the first act of a Labour government was to remove the winter fuel payments from pensioners and then almost just unbelievable decision.
“And it’s really kind of gone on ever since. I think overwhelming the sense that I detect in the population is of real disappointment in the Prime Minister and the Labour government.”
It has been quite a reversal of fortunes for the two party leaders since last year’s Westminster election.
But there is a Holyrood election coming up in seven months and the biggest challenge to the SNP’s dominance may not come from those familiar faces in the opposition – this time, the rise of Reform seems to be catching on in Scotland.
Nigel Farage’s party finished an impressive third just behind the SNP at the Hamilton by-election this summer, and polls indicate they will do well in the Scottish vote next May.
Again, that’s something Mr Swinney pins on the prime minister.
“I think he’s pandered to the rise of Reform,” he told me.
“I think he’s essentially been part of enabling reform to make the headway that they have made, because he’s not confronted the absolute fallacies that lie at the heart of what Nigel Farage is talking about.”
John Swinney’s vision is the polar opposite of Nigel Farage. He is pro-immigration, pro-EU, and pro-Scottish independence.
Just this week he pitched another paper on what an independent Scotland could look like, intriguingly called "A Fresh Start With Independence".
Critics have pointed out it isn’t all that fresh with what looks like a rehear of some old proposals from previous white papers.
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