The war in Iran has seen millions of dollars being traded on so-called ‘prediction markets’ as users place bets on bombs.
Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi allow wagers to be made on anything from the Oscars to the outbreak of war.
But recent trades have prompted fears that some of those involved in military decisions may be profiting from insider knowledge.
One user, Magamyman, made half a million dollars with a prediction just hours before the Ayatollah of Iran was killed in a surprise strike in Tehran.
Now governments are investigating whether profits are being put before peace.
Kalshi, which based in the US, says it’s regulated with no betting on death, and speaking in January, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said his platform was "the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now".
For the breakdown we spoke to Guardian journalist Niamh Rowe about who’s behind the bets.
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