{"id":336867,"date":"2026-04-22T12:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T11:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsisc.com\/videos\/reform-uk-draw-level-with-plaid-cymru-in-new-itv-wales-poll\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T12:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T11:00:18","slug":"reform-uk-draw-level-with-plaid-cymru-in-new-itv-wales-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsisc.com\/videos\/reform-uk-draw-level-with-plaid-cymru-in-new-itv-wales-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.ytimg.com\/vi\/4xTqNQO1NiU\/hqdefault.jpg\" alt=\"Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll\"><br \/> <iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4xTqNQO1NiU\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe> <\/p>\n<p>Reform UK has closed the gap on Plaid Cymru in the race to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to ITV Cymru Wales&#8217; latest poll.<\/p>\n<p>The two parties have consistently polled neck-and-neck but Reform UK has increased its vote share &#8211; while Plaid has seen a drop &#8211; since our last poll, positioning both parties now tied at 29%.<\/p>\n<p>According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new D\u2019Hondt voting system, this round of results means Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru would win 36.<\/p>\n<p>With both short of a majority it sparks more questions about potential deals with other parties after Wales goes to the polls in just over two weeks time.<\/p>\n<p>Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University&#8217;s Welsh Governance Centre said: &quot;This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%; YouGov&#8217;s lowest Plaid estimate since November 2024. All polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party &#8211; including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago \u2014 competing for a distant third place and below.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPlaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority. In a proportional system, the route to government matters as much as the vote share, and on that measure, the two parties are not as evenly matched as the headline figures suggest.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA situation where Reform UK are the largest party but find themselves in opposition will nonetheless be a novel one for Welsh voters still adjusting to the realities of proportional government formation.&quot;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Subscribe to ITV News on YouTube: http:\/\/bit.ly\/2lOHmNj<br \/>\n\u2022 Get breaking news and more stories at http:\/\/www.itv.com\/news<\/p>\n<p>Follow ITV News on TikTok https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@itvnews?lang=en<br \/>\nFollow ITV News on Instagram: https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/itvnews\/<br \/>\nFollow ITV News on Facebook: https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/itvnews\/<br \/>\nFollow ITV News on X: https:\/\/twitter.com\/itvnews<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reform UK has closed the gap on Plaid Cymru in the race to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to ITV Cymru Wales&#8217; latest poll. The two parties have consistently polled neck-and-neck but Reform UK has increased its vote share &#8211; while Plaid has seen a drop &#8211; since our last poll, positioning [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":336868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[128812],"tags":[135780,141344,134441],"actors":[],"class_list":["post-336867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-itv-news","tag-closed","tag-plaid","tag-reform"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll | News ISC Videos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Watch Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll for free, here on News ISC. Discover more great videos on our website and be part of the community.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newsisc.com\/videos\/reform-uk-draw-level-with-plaid-cymru-in-new-itv-wales-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll | News ISC Videos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Watch Reform UK draw level with Plaid Cymru in new ITV Wales poll for free, here on News ISC. 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